The Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) Composite Index returned 48.91% in the first quarter of 2026, lifted by easing inflation, macroeconomic stability, and surging trading across equities and fixed income markets.
The performance marked one of the GSE’s strongest opening quarters in years and nearly doubled the 27.19% return recorded over the same period in 2025. Analysts at Tesah Capital said gains were broadly distributed, with nearly every sector closing in positive territory and only one falling during the quarter.
Trading activity told an even sharper story. Volumes jumped 817.13% year on year while the value of trades climbed 441.40%, signalling renewed participation from both institutional and retail investors. Tesah analysts attributed the surge to larger average transaction sizes and a steady return of risk appetite to the capital market.
MTN Ghana dominated the tape, accounting for roughly 462.4 million shares traded with a total value of about GH¢2.3 billion. The telecoms heavyweight continued to attract growth and income investors alike on the strength of its dividend yield and capital appreciation profile.
The rally tracked an improving macroeconomic backdrop. Ghana’s economy expanded by 6% in 2025 with fourth quarter growth of 5.8% year on year, although the International Monetary Fund and the Ministry of Finance project growth to moderate to 4.8% in 2026 as the economy normalises.
Headline inflation slowed sharply to 3.2% during the quarter, supported by exchange rate stability and easing imported price pressures. Tesah Capital flagged mild upticks in domestically produced goods as a possible signal of emerging demand pressures, but expects inflation to stay within the Bank of Ghana (BoG) target band of 8±2 percent.
The BoG policy rate currently sits at 14% and is likely to remain on hold in the second quarter while authorities assess the durability of the disinflation. Further gradual easing remains possible if the trend holds and the cedi stays steady.
The fixed income market also rebounded. Treasury bill auctions were oversubscribed by 21.4% against a government target of GH¢85.8 billion, while secondary bond market volumes and values rose 93.08% and 114.93% respectively. Analysts cautioned, however, that suppressed short term borrowing costs may not last through the year.
Looking to the second quarter, Tesah Capital expects the bullish run to continue at a more measured pace, with banking stocks benefiting from post restructuring balance sheet repair and MTN Ghana likely to remain a primary market driver.
Risks remain. Analysts pointed to potential exchange rate reversals, fiscal slippages, debt sustainability concerns, and possible delays in reform implementation. Geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the threat of a global oil price shock were also flagged as material threats to investor sentiment and interest rate spreads.
Source : NewsGhana
